{
  "version": "workload-forecast-v1",
  "provenance": "Entirely synthetic teaching data; not customer outcomes or a benchmark of general forecasting ability",
  "training": {
    "from": "2026-01-05",
    "through": "2026-02-01",
    "days": 28
  },
  "evaluation": {
    "from": "2026-02-02",
    "through": "2026-02-15",
    "days": 14,
    "origin": "2026-02-01",
    "fixedOrigin": true
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  "fitted": {
    "intercept": 18.142857,
    "slopePerWeek": 3,
    "weekdayOffsets": [
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      4.857143,
      3.607143,
      2.857143,
      0.857143,
      -5.892857,
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  },
  "metric": "mean absolute error",
  "units": "requests per day",
  "cases": [
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      "date": "2026-02-02",
      "actual": 28,
      "baseline": 30,
      "candidate": 32.5,
      "baselineAbsoluteError": 2,
      "candidateAbsoluteError": 4.5
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-02-03",
      "actual": 32,
      "baseline": 32,
      "candidate": 35,
      "baselineAbsoluteError": 0,
      "candidateAbsoluteError": 3
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-02-04",
      "actual": 30,
      "baseline": 30,
      "candidate": 33.75,
      "baselineAbsoluteError": 0,
      "candidateAbsoluteError": 3.75
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-02-05",
      "actual": 28,
      "baseline": 31,
      "candidate": 33,
      "baselineAbsoluteError": 3,
      "candidateAbsoluteError": 5
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-02-06",
      "actual": 28,
      "baseline": 28,
      "candidate": 31,
      "baselineAbsoluteError": 0,
      "candidateAbsoluteError": 3
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-02-07",
      "actual": 20,
      "baseline": 20,
      "candidate": 24.25,
      "baselineAbsoluteError": 0,
      "candidateAbsoluteError": 4.25
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-02-08",
      "actual": 17,
      "baseline": 19,
      "candidate": 21.5,
      "baselineAbsoluteError": 2,
      "candidateAbsoluteError": 4.5
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-02-09",
      "actual": 26,
      "baseline": 30,
      "candidate": 35.5,
      "baselineAbsoluteError": 4,
      "candidateAbsoluteError": 9.5
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    {
      "date": "2026-02-10",
      "actual": 30,
      "baseline": 32,
      "candidate": 38,
      "baselineAbsoluteError": 2,
      "candidateAbsoluteError": 8
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-02-11",
      "actual": 30,
      "baseline": 30,
      "candidate": 36.75,
      "baselineAbsoluteError": 0,
      "candidateAbsoluteError": 6.75
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-02-12",
      "actual": 28,
      "baseline": 31,
      "candidate": 36,
      "baselineAbsoluteError": 3,
      "candidateAbsoluteError": 8
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-02-13",
      "actual": 26,
      "baseline": 28,
      "candidate": 34,
      "baselineAbsoluteError": 2,
      "candidateAbsoluteError": 8
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-02-14",
      "actual": 20,
      "baseline": 20,
      "candidate": 27.25,
      "baselineAbsoluteError": 0,
      "candidateAbsoluteError": 7.25
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    {
      "date": "2026-02-15",
      "actual": 16,
      "baseline": 19,
      "candidate": 24.5,
      "baselineAbsoluteError": 3,
      "candidateAbsoluteError": 8.5
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  ],
  "totalAbsoluteErrors": {
    "baseline": 21,
    "candidate": 84
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  "mae": {
    "baseline": 1.5,
    "candidate": 6
  },
  "lowerMaeOnFixture": "baseline",
  "clippedPredictions": 0,
  "releaseDecision": "NOT APPROVED — no real-world validation, uncertainty model or operational acceptance"
}